Household growth rates drop by a quarter compared to previous estimates, government figures show

The number of households in England is set to increase at an average annual rate of 159,000 over the next 25 years - a drop of almost a quarter compared to the previous estimates, new government figures show.

The Office for National Statistics has this morning published the 2016-based household projections for England.

They show (see graph below) that the number of households in England is projected to increase by 4.0 million, or 17 per cent, over the next 25 years, rising from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in 2041.

This equates to 159,000 additional households each year compared with the 210,000 per year previously projected in the 2014-based figures published in July 2016 - a drop of 24 per cent.

The figures form a key part of the government's new standard method for assessing housing need. The method is based on the latest household formation projections, which are adjusted to reflect housing affordability, and then subjected to a 40 per cent cap on any increase above current annual requirements. 

However, the government has said it will imminently consult on possible changes to the standard method to account for the likely lower growth rates, confirmed in today's figures.

According to the ONS, the highest growth of households is projected to take place in London; while the North East is projected to have the slowest rate of household growth of all regions.

Five of the ten local authorities with the highest rate of household growth are in London.

Meanwhile, households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88 per cent of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.

The figures can be found here.


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